MANILA — Amid the hubbub on bloated figures over Leni’s Bacolod City rally, now comes the furor over Google’s alleged survey that showed the Pinklawan’s standard-bearer to be ahead of the fact, err, pack.
So again, our fact-checkers who are determined at determining the real facts down to the bitter end when sources “fuck up” on facts launched a no-nonsense fact-checking, although, in fact, Google instantly issued a disclaimer about a survey or anything to do with the May 9, 2022, presidential elections.
Some parts of Andrew Masigan’s article, which was published on Philstar Global on March 9, 2022, were circulated in private messages and shared on the social media accounts of some netizens, showing data from Google Trends reports from February 5 to March 2, 2022, indicating that Leni Robredo is the most searched for on Google.
Is it possible to forecast the election outcomes in 2022 using Google Trends?
Is it TRUE or FALSE?
The article was entitled ‘“On Google Trends and presidential surveys.” It basically stated that the presidential surveys and Google Trends are telling different stories. According to the article, the credible presidential surveys are saying that if an election is held at the time of the surveys, BBM will win. The subject Philippine Star column article, on the other hand, is saying that Leni will win based on the results of Google Trends.
Google itself, in a statement, stressed, “It merely reflects people’s search interest about particular topics at a local level over a period of time. A spike in a particular search query does not reflect that a candidate is somehow popular or winning.”
Based on the Google News Initiative, “Crucially, it is important to recognize that Google Trends is not a substitute for polling data. Search interest has no bearing on voter intention — Google users may search for a party or politician for any number of reasons, without intending to vote for them. Trends data is indicative only of what Google users want to know more about.”
The Star article further deceptively and misleadingly said that Google Trends is so accurate that it can correctly predict the outcome of elections in the US, Canada, Greece, Spain, Germany, Brazil, and the Philippines when President Rodrigo Duterte was elected.
Masigan, the author of the article, said that based on Google Trends in the period of Feb. 5 to Mar. 2, 2022, the keywords “Leni” and “Robredo” led to search results and positive engagements with a total score of 107. On the other hand, keywords “BBM,” “Bongbong” and “Marcos” put BBM next on the top presidential list with a 79 score.
However, Google Trends has far too many categories to keep you interested. As you can see, Vice President Leni Robredo is trending in various places. For example, in the Food and Drinks category, all hot searches or top searches are “LENI LUGAW, LUGAWAN NI LENI; She is trending due to MEME searches, not because people want her to be president.
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Philstar Article: https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/03/09/2165915/google-trends-and-presidential-surveys official link of google trends in the past week:
Food & drink Category: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?cat=71&date=now%207-d&geo=PH&q=%2Fm%2F0n50kzg,%2Fm%2F02rbl1
“WE FACT CHECK THE FACT-CHECKERS WHEN THEY FUCK UP.”