Bongbong’s 56% overshadows Leni’s 23% in latest pre-election survey

Bongbong’s 56% overshadows Leni’s 23% in latest pre-election survey

MANILA — Presidential frontrunner Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, Jr. further reinforced his dominance over his rivals in the upcoming 2022 polls by posting a 56% voter preference in the latest pre-election survey by PUBLiCUS Asia.

With barely a month before the May 2022 national elections, political observers noted that the UniTeam presidential bet is on the cusp of being the first majority president to be elected in a multi-party political system.

Marcos’ voter preference in the PAHAYAG 2022 First Quarter Survey shows a massive 33 percentage points lead over his closest contender for the presidency.

The independent and non-commissioned survey was conducted by one of the most reputable polling firms in the country, PUBLiCUS Asia, from March 30, 2022 to April 6, 2022, utilizing 1,500 respondents.

Still trailing behind Marcos by a wide margin is Leni Robredo with 23% voter preference, followed by Isko Moreno with 9%, Sen. Panfilo Lacson with 5%, and Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 2%.

The PAHAYAG survey results also indicate that support for Marcos’ candidacy continues to firm up among the Filipino electorate despite the slew of negative propaganda directed at him.

Marcos also posted overwhelming numbers in major geographical locations; 45% in the National Capital Region (NCR), 57% in North Central Luzon (NCL), 46% in South Luzon (SL), and 56% in the Visayas, and 71% in Mindanao.

The survey results also noted Marcos’ staggering lead in voter preference over Robredo in North Central Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao remains well above 30%, attesting to her failure to sway voters despite her camp’s claim of a ‘groundswell’ of support for her candidacy.

Marcos’s genuine message of unity also resonates with Filipino voters from the D and E economic classes, such that he received 57% and 60% voter preference, respectively.

When asked about the probability of Marcos’ rivals catching up with him, PUBLiCUS Asia chief data scientist David Yap, Jr., said that he ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to forecast the probable outcome.

“I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on existing survey data from PUBLiCUS, Pulse Asia, Laylo, and OCTA… These 10,000 simulations strongly suggest that Bongbong Marcos is expected to win in the upcoming elections,” Yap said.

According to a definition from IBM, a Monte Carlo Simulation, also known as multiple probability simulation, is a mathematical technique used to estimate the possible outcomes of an uncertain event.

PUBLiCUS Asia’s survey results tally with Pulse Asia’s recently published pre-election survey, showing that Marcos’ numbers are steady, making catching up with him very difficult.

“Theoretically, kaya pero mahirap. But realistically mahirap. Hindi sinabing imposible,” Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda said. (AI/MTVN)

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