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“Know your enemy, know yourself. And in a hundred battles, there shall be a hundred victories.”
– Sun Tzu
LIKE A WILY DRAGON, China must be biding her time before she would eventually pounce on Taiwan.
The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the open defiance of the Wagner mercenary group against strongman Vladimir Putin must have had an impact on Xi Jinping who had earlier strongly vowed to reunify Taiwan with mainland China.
Last March, Xi Jinping stressed the need for “national reunification” as the “essence of national rejuvenation” which has apparently sent shivers down the spines of the United States that — according to some critics — has long been playing as a sort of policeman of the world.
In the July 20, 2021 article in The New York Times, it said that “After World War II, US leaders came to see the Soviet Union and the spread of Communism as a national security threat.
“If we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation,” Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton’s secretary of state, said in 1998.
That is why in the event that China attacks Taiwan, the Philippines will have no choice but to be dragged into the armed conflict, just like during the second world war when Japan charged our country for being a US ally.
Signed in 2014, EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) grants US troops access to designated Philippine military facilities and allows them to build facilities, and preposition equipment, aircraft, and vessels.
I believe that China is closely studying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which has stretched for more than one year, with the “special operations” launched in February 2022.
Although China has refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine it has also expressed concern about the humanitarian situation and called for peace talks.
I think China will not dare repeat Russia’s blunder in invading Ukraine to prevent the latter from joining the National Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 member states, including the US.
Meanwhile, the short-lived mutiny in Russia by the Wagner mercenary group led by erstwhile Putin’s close ally Evgeniy Prigozhin has also somewhat shaken Kremlin.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry reportedly described the uprising as “Russia’s internal affair.”
“As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” an unnamed Chinese spokesperson said in a statement on Sunday.
Strangely, the statement did not mention Putin or Prigozhin.
With these developments, we may have an uneasy peace at this point as China seems to hesitate to launch its own “special operations” in Taiwan that may involve the EDCA sites in the Philippines.
Abangan ang susunod na kabanata.
(ai/mtvn)
